is something fishy happening in India right now?
I have got a WhatsApp message about the Nirav Modi's 11,400 Cr scam, read it here.
While reading it, i have got a serendipitous thought which absolutely has no proof. Here it is:
Nirav Modi Jewellery:
The total value of Nirav Modi's scam is 11,400 Cr INR.
The bank involved in the scam is PNB ~ Punjab National Bank.
As i have recently started equity trading, so i have idea on the indexes and share price of popular at least. Share price of PNB has increased drastically in last quarter. Here is the share price graph of PNB in last 1 year:
This analogy, alarmed about two other steps that this government is planning and has taken. Let us go 3 months back.
Government is planning to bring-in FRDI bail-in/out rule. Which give permission to banks to use the fix deposit of customers in-case of bankruptcy. This is also like the above, as they thought if some more scams or NPA's are found out banks will definitely going to get effected in-terms of cash flow. So, to safeguard bank's they might have thought of bringing it in? People and opposition opposed it strongly.
So, it's clear that when NPA's are identified, banks will be state of less money, so they need more money. what are ways to get money into banks? No one will voluntarily save money in banks as it will be taxed. so, some how it is to be brought into bank. There is the master mind's plan.
Two birds for one stone. Modi while campaigning declared that he will do get black money to India and distribute to the poor. Modi's government hasn't made a significant progress in it. So, some how they should prepare for the next election. So, they did demonetisation. Get the black money out in India which is the outer face of it, internal is that, people will now deposit money into banks. So, banks will have a good amount of money.
I feel State Banks Merger is also a plan to strengthen largest public sector bank in India. which if effected in any manner, Chao's will be there everywhere in India.
Now with demonetisation, people deposited their hard earned/savings in banks. Banks got a total 2.8-4.3 Lakh Crores because of demonetisation.
With this what is benefit for Modi sarkar. They will clear more NPA's. So that their understandings with business people will get better which will help them to get into regime next time as they can pour-in money.
My doubt is becoming stronger as Modi's government is failing to explain how demonetisation is a success. How much was collected because of demonetisation. Even after an year with all new machinery in banking, they are still counting.
So the 3rd and 4th which strengthened by doubt were FRDI and Demonetisation.
The last thought and 5th thought which helped to get a strong opinion on this is Telugu movie Dhruva, a Tamil remake of Thani Oruvan. Even though its a movie, the idea which the hero explains was sensible up to me. To hide bigger things, big shots divert public attention to smaller one's and do it silently. you wont understand the real thing behind it unless you analyse the situation till the route cause.
So, government is also taken similar step i feel.
So, with these 5 thoughts inter connection i have got this serendipitous thought that, something fishy is happening in India right now. Its an alarming one. First Vijay Malya now NM. It continues... up to me, and banks will be involved in them obviously. Banks need money, so government might bring some more schemes to boost banks but they fall due to NPA's which will be identified. At the end it will be in a no loss situation. So, opposition an't blame that business are doing good or banks aren't doing good in your government.
Even though government's intention is not exactly to help the business tycoons something fishy is there. What ever is going on is all well narrated directed and now its being executed. Yet to understand the intention exactly but definitely its fishy.
While reading it, i have got a serendipitous thought which absolutely has no proof. Here it is:
Nirav Modi Jewellery:
The total value of Nirav Modi's scam is 11,400 Cr INR.
The bank involved in the scam is PNB ~ Punjab National Bank.
As i have recently started equity trading, so i have idea on the indexes and share price of popular at least. Share price of PNB has increased drastically in last quarter. Here is the share price graph of PNB in last 1 year:
The mean reason for price hike being government 2.11 Cr allocation to strengthen banks which are affected by NPA's. Not just PNB all public sector banks share prices have gone higher. check here.
PNB has rallied better than any other public sector bank. Like any other layman, i was also thinking good and great about PNB's rally until i read about the NM's scam. So, the share price dropped to the current 126.1 which is near 52 week low, if this has happened before the rally, what would happen to the share price?
that's first thought which lead to my final thought.
Now, lets go back two weeks to the Budget-2018 week. It was released on 01-Feb-2018.
Let us observe the Nifty 50 index graph.
The rally before the budget started from 10,500 and its currently at the same level. Interesting thing in the rally was that, during the rally only Nifty 50/BSE 100 are only increasing nifty mid cap, nifty small cap weren't. Even though there were some not so good news and results indexes were growing. which i felt like an inorganic growth. My assumption was true. immediately after the budget, market collapsed. In addition to budget, negative winds from foreign markets brought Nifty/BSE further down. If the same market collapse happened before the rally of the market? where the current price would have been?
this is my seconds thought, which fuelled my final thought.
From the above two i felt like a plan. Government is influencing the market and share prices.
They have the understanding of the consequences so, they have taken preventive steps to not have a greater fall or better to say safe guarded their government's image.This analogy, alarmed about two other steps that this government is planning and has taken. Let us go 3 months back.
Government is planning to bring-in FRDI bail-in/out rule. Which give permission to banks to use the fix deposit of customers in-case of bankruptcy. This is also like the above, as they thought if some more scams or NPA's are found out banks will definitely going to get effected in-terms of cash flow. So, to safeguard bank's they might have thought of bringing it in? People and opposition opposed it strongly.
So, it's clear that when NPA's are identified, banks will be state of less money, so they need more money. what are ways to get money into banks? No one will voluntarily save money in banks as it will be taxed. so, some how it is to be brought into bank. There is the master mind's plan.
Two birds for one stone. Modi while campaigning declared that he will do get black money to India and distribute to the poor. Modi's government hasn't made a significant progress in it. So, some how they should prepare for the next election. So, they did demonetisation. Get the black money out in India which is the outer face of it, internal is that, people will now deposit money into banks. So, banks will have a good amount of money.
I feel State Banks Merger is also a plan to strengthen largest public sector bank in India. which if effected in any manner, Chao's will be there everywhere in India.
Now with demonetisation, people deposited their hard earned/savings in banks. Banks got a total 2.8-4.3 Lakh Crores because of demonetisation.
With this what is benefit for Modi sarkar. They will clear more NPA's. So that their understandings with business people will get better which will help them to get into regime next time as they can pour-in money.
My doubt is becoming stronger as Modi's government is failing to explain how demonetisation is a success. How much was collected because of demonetisation. Even after an year with all new machinery in banking, they are still counting.
So the 3rd and 4th which strengthened by doubt were FRDI and Demonetisation.
The last thought and 5th thought which helped to get a strong opinion on this is Telugu movie Dhruva, a Tamil remake of Thani Oruvan. Even though its a movie, the idea which the hero explains was sensible up to me. To hide bigger things, big shots divert public attention to smaller one's and do it silently. you wont understand the real thing behind it unless you analyse the situation till the route cause.
So, government is also taken similar step i feel.
So, with these 5 thoughts inter connection i have got this serendipitous thought that, something fishy is happening in India right now. Its an alarming one. First Vijay Malya now NM. It continues... up to me, and banks will be involved in them obviously. Banks need money, so government might bring some more schemes to boost banks but they fall due to NPA's which will be identified. At the end it will be in a no loss situation. So, opposition an't blame that business are doing good or banks aren't doing good in your government.
Even though government's intention is not exactly to help the business tycoons something fishy is there. What ever is going on is all well narrated directed and now its being executed. Yet to understand the intention exactly but definitely its fishy.
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